Critical Path Predictions
From Open Source Ecology
Why Predictions?
- So we can collect data on accuracy of predictions, and wrinkles that get in the way. Should be reviewed monthly or quarterly. Note that milestones and goals are constantly shifting at Critical path with 1 year delays on small milestones, 10 years on larger milestones, and on-time for the largest milestones (2028) which is a nonlinear process. Key is keeping clear on the trillion dollar value proposition of Distributive Economics
July 8, 2023
- Critical_Path#May_16.2C_202 is the last entry, with annual financial planning documented at the Seed Eco-Home 4 business plan under OSE Financial Planning 2023.
- Magic would mean finishing by July 29, and a sale at the same time - to meet the OSE Financial Planning. Thus we transcend and include.
- Likely scenario involves 30-60 days to finish, due to the overwhelming production engineering being developed:
- Workshop reconstituted for house module production
- Jig for individual modules [1] which allows for about 5 minutes per module, thus under 4 hours for the entire house interior walls, and another 4 hours with MEP, for a breakthrough 8 hours for interior walls build.
- MEP involves cutting+stripping wires, attaching boxes temporarily, stapling wire, adding PEX holders, adding pipe strap.
- Key to jig is a measureless edge-protected cutoff saw [2]
- Overhead hoists takes modules to forks at 8 modules per load, which are then loaded on the trailer [3].
- All materials are located right next to the work table and slide right into place, so that from start of build to trailer requires zero human-lifting of panels because we use a houist and forks.
- meaning that the work pace can be sustained continuously for 8 hours.
- Digital design of all plumbing modules allows all 14 of these [4] to be prepared in about 2 hours, such as the double sink assembly up to the finish fittings [5] including 1 hour documented Big-Box store time for all PVC from the visaul BOMS.
- Digital design of all PEX modules including the water service entrance are quick-connect shark-bites, allowing full pre-assembly of to happen in about 2 hours for all 11 of the PEX assemblies [6]
- Final loading on the trailer is done in a specific order based on which module is installed first on site.
- From 60 day to finish (Sep 1), we build House 2 with a staff of 4 (Nov 1). Nov 1 on we start in earnest. See Apprenticeship Operations.
- Take off end of Dec 15 thru Jan 15. Get back Feb 1.
- Ongoing hiring to 24 over 11 months, we are at 2 weeks per house or $5M/year.
